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Archive for the ‘Currency Trading’ Category

When I thought about some of the first things I learned before trading the Forex market, fundamental analysis came to mind. Fundamental analysis refers to factors that affect the price of a currency pair. It is important not only to perform technical analysis based on your charts and indicators, but to also be aware of the macroeconomic events that can affect a currency pair. What helped me in my forex education was learning each currency’s characteristics. Whichever pair or pairs you choose to trade, knowing each of their characteristics is extremely valuable because it aids in the accuracy of any trade you perform.

Europe- Euro. This currency is rather new. It began trading in 1999; however the EURO/USD pair is the most traded. Because of this, the EURO/USD is very liquid. The euro is greatly affected by interest rates. If you are trading the EURO/USD pair, you must pay attention to the Euribor (Europe’s three-month interest rate), to watch for any changes in investor reactions when trading the EURO/USD pair since the Usd and Euro rates affect each other. The EURO/USD is my personal favorite pair because of the many opportunities it gives for potential trades.

Japan- Japanese Yen. Japan is the largest economy in East Asia; therefore the yen is used as an alternate for the whole region’s economy. If there is trouble in the surrounding countries, the yen may drop in value. The Bank of Japan is known for intervening in the forex market to defend the yen’s value. Another factor affecting the yen is the overall strength of its banking sector.
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I know a woman in her sixties. She worked for a company for a little more than a decade as an administration and office assistant for a staff of one hundred sales people, who loved her dearly. She always made sure all the faxes got to their desks; the stationery stock was full and each staff member had what he needed.

Beyond her job description, she was like a mother to all of them: making sure the toilets got cleaned, old food was removed from the fridge and decorating the entire floor which the department occupied. She worked hard and never complained. She was always smiling, friendly and polite.

She felt good about being a ‘mother’ to all the people who entered and left that department. She was comfortable with her position. No-one else could do the things she did. And she did them better than anyone else in the building.

One day, she went to work as usual. After doing her morning chores, she was invited to the office, where she was told her services were no longer needed. The company was undergoing certain cost-cutting measures in every department and unfortunately, her role would have to be sacrificed. She was then asked to leave the building as soon as possible. She was assured, however, that before having made the decision, every attempt had been made to find a position for her somewhere within the company.

She has financial obligations to fulfil and she still hasn’t saved enough for her retirement. She still has credit to pay off and she was saving for a trip overseas, something she never got around to doing in her younger years. She wanted to save up to establish a book-selling business. Suddenly, she would have to re-evaluate her plans. Losing a job and nearing retirement age, she will have to relinquish some of the things she had dreamt for herself.

I am sure you have heard hundreds of similar stories like these. Just five months before writing this article, I had already read about companies cutting costs by laying off jobs. Their main reason is to remain competitive, so they would not have to raise the prices they charge to their customers. Companies are outsourcing jobs overseas because the labour costs in other countries are relatively cheap compared to the local currency and sometimes because of significant skills or technological advantages. Other businesses lessen staff when sales drop and they can no longer sustain to pay the same number of people they have on their payroll. No organisation – not even a big, established business – is immune from the need to become leaner in an ever-increasingly competitive market environment.

In the past, most people believed the companies or the governments – whom they work for – could guarantee them a job for life. Nowadays, I think more and more people are becoming increasingly aware that expecting to have a job-for-life is unrealistic. It is a dire predicament to be working everyday, taking care of someone else’s business and realising that at the end of one’s career, years of service do not guarantee one’s well-being. Because of this, I believe that people are now looking to improve their chances of having enough funds to meet their needs and wants after retirement.

I think there is a dawning awareness that the ultimate responsibility for one’s own well-being lies within each individual. People are beginning to understand that their boss or the company they work for does not have an obligation nor the ability to ensure that they are taken care of when they finish working for them.
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The key to the FOREX market for the average investor is the margin. Without margin trading currency trading would be beyond most investors. I will explain what the margin is and how it works.
When you have a margin account you are able to control large amounts of currency with a relatively small cash deposit. When you have a margin account with a broker you are in effect borrowing money from the broker to control a larger lot of currency. Currency is normally sold in lots with a value of $100,000. A common term used when discussing margin accounts is leverage. Leverage is how much you can control with a certain amount of money. The leverage is usually displayed as a ration such as 1:100. That would allow you to control currency worth 100 times the amount of money you have invested.
To better explain this in a FOREX exchange with a 1% margin account you could control $100,000 worth of a currency while only investing $1000. Margin accounts can allow you to greatly increase your profit; they also allow you to increase your risk. With a margin account it is possible for a trader to lose more than their initial investment. With a little prudence though losses can be minimized. Most brokers will terminate a trade before the losses exceed the original deposit.

Benefits
As discussed before a margin account allows you to buy more with the money you have which can greatly increase your profit on successful trades. By controlling a $100,000 worth of currency for only $1000 the potential gain is greater. When dealing with large lots of currency even small changes can produce significant results.
Currency on the FOREX market is traded in far more precise units than actual cash is. As an example the American dollar is traded down to four decimal points. So when you were to quote the dollar against another currency you will see a price like $1.7834 instead of $1.78. A PIP is the smallest unit when trading currencies, when dealing with $100,000 lots then each pip is worth about $10.
If the price of the American dollar changes from $1.7834 to $1.7934, you have a net difference of 100 pips. If you have a lot of $100,000 then that 100 pips will translate to $1000 where as if you were not using the margin your original $1000 would only show a profit of $10. Hardly what most would consider a highly profitable trade?
In short the primary benefit of using a margin account is that it can greatly increase the profit margin of a trade.
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A day trading robot? Gee Wiz! Sounds like science fiction, right? It did to me just a few years ago. I would have never imagined that such a thing was possible. First of all, I came from a school of thought that believed nothing could be programmed to trade the markets successfully. I strongly believed this and argued with anyone that crossed my path. “No automated day trading system could tackle the stock market; impossible!” or so I thought. I also said to myself, “How could a computer program successfully factor fear and greed [the emotions that move the market] into an equation designed to extract consistent short-term profits from the market each and every day?” Well…,

…the bad news is that there really isn’t a robot to day trade stocks. Sorry to burst your bubble.

But…the good news is that there is one that day trades currencies (you know, the great forex market that I love and have bored you over and over with throughout this website?).

No folks; this is not “Forex Made Easy.” This is “Forex Made Easier”- An automated day trading system that NOT ONLY comes with a highly sophisticated set of conditions to enter and exit the market, but one that also pulls the trigger (that is, executes the trades) for you, using proper money management without which day trading is doomed to failure. [If you have not read why I strongly believe that the forex (short for foreign exchange) market is the purest and best market to day trade in the world, go to the currency trading section of this website]. This automated system is also known as Forex Robot or FX Bot (for frequently asked questions about the trading robot, click here).

Yes day trading fans. This day trading robot (or bot) not only finds the trades, it takes advantage of them when it finds them.

When the forex trading robot was presented to me for the first time, it was difficult for me to accept the whole concept. I got to admit, I was pretty skeptical. If the explanation wouldn’t have come from the best two money managers and traders I know (and personal friends of mine), I wouldn’t have even listened. But after a while, I was sold. “You, Dan? Mr. Day Trading Tutor?” – “Telling us that you believe in a day trading robot after writing an endless amount of information about how people could learn how to day trade, how much you believe in day trading, how you have helped day traders in the past, etc., etc.?”

Whoa, whoa!!! People, don’t get so exited. All of these things are still true. There are people that will learn how to day trade successfully and become successful traders. I am still involved on a very limited basis on the training of some day traders. But there are also many people out there that will never succeed as day traders and others that, after having tried it, will realize that it is not for them.
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Did You Begin Day Trading As An Indicator Only Trader?

Did you start day trading after buying a book on technical analysis, and getting a charting program – probably a free one that you found online – in order to save money? While reading your book you learned about trading indicators which could ‘predict’ price movement, and what do you know, the ‘best’ indicators were actually included in your free charting program – let the games begin.

Now that you have all the day trading tools that are necessary, the book for education AND the free charting program with those ‘best’ day trading indicators, you now need a day trading plan so you can decide which ones of those ‘magic’ day trading indicators you are supposed to use. This really is a great book, besides telling you how to day trade using indicators to ‘predict’ price – it also said that you need a trading plan to day trade.

So what should this plan be? The book told you about trend following using an indicator called macd, and it also told you how it was possible to pick the top or bottoms using an indicator called stochastic; my guess is that you picked the stochastic indicator to start your day trading – this must be the ‘best of the best’ since this indicator was going to ensure you of entering your trades with the ‘best’ price. Amazing, simply amazing how easy this day trading stuff really is. In fact, why even bother taking the trades, each time your indicators give a signal – just call up your broker and tell him to stick $100 in your account.

My book was Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets. My charting program was TradeStation with an eSignal fm receiver; that was the one that if you hung the antennae wires just right, and you put enough foil on the tips, you might even get quotes. I had sold a business before I started trading so I did have some capital – isn’t that how everyone gets into trading, you either sell a business or you lose your job? My indicator was the macd as I had decided that I was going to be a ‘trend follower’ instead of a ‘top-bottom picker’. I also decided that I was going to be ‘extra’ clever, if one indicator was good than two indicators must be better, so I added a 20 period moving average. My first trade was a winner, then after many months of extensive therapy, I was finally able to forget the next twelve months – ahhh the memories ?

Learning To Day Trading – The Learning Progression

Beginning to day trade, or learning to day trade, as an indicator trader is very typical. This is also logical when you consider – HOW are you supposed to initially learn how to trade? Trading indicators are available to anyone who has a charting program, and simply using line crosses, or histogram color changes, provide ‘easy’ signals to understand. If you will also take the time to learn the arithmetic behind your indicators, as well as learning what each indicator is specifically intended to do, not only is this a logical way to begin, it is also a good ‘step’ in your learning progression – understanding the WHAT you are doing, instead of attempting to create ‘canned’ indicator only trading systems, without any regard as to WHY you are trading this way.

This does become one of the ‘sticking’ points in your learning progression, as you come to find out that you are unable to profitably trade indicators as signals only – now what? Now what – you ‘can’t’ develop your own indicators, so you start doing google searches for day trading indicators and start buying your ‘collection’ – they don’t ‘work’ either. Now what – you buy a mechanical trading system – what does hypothetical results may not be indicative of real trading or future results mean? Now what – you start subscribing to signal services OR you start joining the ‘latest and greatest’ chat room – am I really the only person using the signals who isn’t profitable?

Now what – you never learn how to trade.

I began trading as an indicator trader, and I did try to learn everything that I could about the various indicators, as well as trying to combine indicators that were consistent with how I wanted to trade – I just could never develop a mechanical day trading system from what was available to me. I read a couple more books that didn’t really help me, so I then started looking for someone who could teach me. From what I now know about gurus -vs- teachers, I am very lucky that I got involved with a money manager-trader who taught me a tremendous amount, but I still couldn’t get profitable, in part because there was also ‘pressure’ to learn how to trade using real money. As well, any discussions or thoughts about trading psychology and the issues involved, especially to beginning traders, was non-existent.

Now what – learning but losing – I stopped trading.
Learning to trading using real money, and ‘scoffing’ at trading psychology as simply individual weakness, really was something that I now regard as misinformation. I always mention this as I now feel that this cost me as much as a year of time, and was very close to costing me my trading future, as stopped trading was VERY close to quitting trading. How can’t trading psychology be real to a beginner, when you consider that you are risking losing money at a very fast pace as a day trader, and when you further consider that you are also doing this when you really don’t know what you are doing – this is NOT by definition being weak. And if trading psychology is real, how are you going to learn to make ‘good’ trading habits with real money while you are fighting the implications?

Now what – not trading and not ready [quite] to quit – still studying and searching.

Probably the single most important ‘thing’ that got me to a next step in learning how to trade, was the concept of a trading setup, and that a setup and a signal were not the same. This was extremely meaningful to me, as it also led to an understanding of how to better use trading indicators for the information that they can provide, but not to use them as trading signals – in essence I began learning about trading method where discretion could be consistently applied -vs- trading system that was mechanical and arithmetic rules.

Traders who are indicator only traders, are also what I refer to right side only traders, that is they are always looking at the right side of their charts for an indicator signal. BUT what about the left side of the chart, what about price and patterns, what about market conditions – WHAT about the relevant ‘things’ that are ‘moving’ price, instead of indicators only as an arithmetic derivative of price, and thus, one that is dependant on the time frame that you have chosen to trade from? These ‘thoughts’, along with the concept of trade setup, became instrumental in the development of a trading method, and how I came to turning my trading around.

When I think about the steps in my learning progression – I would list them as follows:

2/95 – 6/96
indicators only
teaching service that included signals
learning to trading with real money and trading psychology issues
stop trading

6/96 – 3/97
understanding of trading psychology issues
learning about trading setups concept
trading method -vs- trading system
trade setup – trade trigger are not the same
method development
understand the importance of the left side of the chart and what is happening ‘across’ the chart
related trading setups and how/when they triggered
indicators + pattern
indicators + pattern + price
indicators + pattern + price + market conditions

3/97 – 11/97
able to paper trade profitably
able to real money trade profitably
able to trade for a living
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