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Now that the uranium bull market has gone to a new level, a number of exploration stocks made spectacular percentage gains after the International Investment Conference held in San Francisco in late November 2005. We turned to Kevin Bambrough, Market Strategist, and Jean-Francoise Tardif, Portfolio Manager, at Sprott Asset Management for their advice on how to navigate through the more than 250 uranium exploration, development and producing companies available across the global investment landscape. Who better to ask than a fund that has invested around $175 million in uranium stocks the past few years, about 6.7 percent of more than $2.5 billion managed by Sprott Asset Management? The Sprott team has bet heavily on a nuclear energy renaissance, and early indications confirm very strong returns in their investments.

Before our taped telephone interview, Kevin Bambrough emailed a few comments, “We would like to make the point about some incredible gains that have been had in the uranium sector. The list is growing but not the quality so investors should use extreme caution. As the uranium price rises, and money pours into exploration, we can expect to see some sizeable discoveries coming down the road. It should be exciting times.”

Prior to StockInterview.com’s interviews with Mr. Bambrough and Mr. Tardif, they compiled a list of ten tips for investors studying uranium companies. The tips are listed below, followed by an extensive interview, first with Mr. Bambrough (in this installment) and a second installment with Mr. Bambrough and Mr. Tardif.

The Ten Tips Investors Should Know

1. One of the best indicators of a project’s potential success could be past ownership. It’s best to try to buy any mining stock early in the cycle. Try to pick up properties that were worked by majors during the last bull market but which eventually dropped during the lows of the bear market. During the last uranium boom of the 1970’s, many majors decided to completely exit the uranium sector.

2. Study the value of ore body with regards to its value per tonne, or its recoverable metal. Estimate the “all in” costs and feel comfortable with what you are paying. Risks-to-reward doesn’t favor pure exploration. Typically, we avoid pure exploration plays unless management is excellent, they have a large prospective land package, and the company is well financed.

3. Look for good, proven management, which has been successful in the past.

4. Look for solid shareholders. It is always nice to see that management has a large stake in the company. Often, this makes them value their paper more, and they will be less likely to engage in reckless stock issuance. If not management, I get comfort seeing that successful fund managers have large holdings. It is even better to see that a major company in a related industry has taken an interest in the company. Read the rest of this entry »

In trading yesterday, only the tech-laden NASDAQ avoided the selling, edging up 3.04 points to hold at above 2300 and its five-year high. As I have said, breadth in the NASDAQ has improved.

The DOW was the big loser on the day giving up 65 points or 0.58% to fall to 11,150.70, which is just below its key short-term 20-day moving average, a warning. The S&P 500 lost 2.64 points. The near-tech technical signals for these two indices are the weakest of the four indices.

Small-cap stocks continue to hold after breaking to a new historical high on Wednesday. The Russell 2000 fell 1.58 points or 0.21%, which is positive given the extreme overbought condition. The barometer of small-cap performance is up a healthy 13.28% this year. While impressive, I question whether the index can maintain this rate of appreciation.

In commodities news, the May light crude futures on the NYMEX broke above $67 a barrel on Thursday. The near-term signals look relatively bullish and the minor trend is positive. The breakout materialized after a Rectangle formation at between $61 and $65.50. Oil could move towards the $70 level, last encountered in February, if it can hold at $65.50-$66. But watch for some selling pressure as the contract is overbought. High oil prices will pressure stocks.

Trading in the NASDAQ has come in at over 2 billion shares in the last three straight sessions. Trading volume on the NASDAQ came in at about 2.22 billion shares yesterday, above its 5-day and 10-day moving averages of 2.11 billion and 2.18 billion shares, respectively. The strong volume in yesterday’s marginal up day is encouraging following a strong volume breakout on Wednesday.

On the NYSE, daily trading picked up yesterday. Trading on Thursday was 1.61 billion shares, above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages of 1.55 billion and 1.55 billion shares, respectively.

The near-term technical picture for the NASDAQ is bullish but is showing some potential weakening. The Relative Strength remains relatively strong, suggesting more gains if it can hold. The index is holding at above its previous pivot point of 2332.95 and its five-year high of 2333, a bullish sign. The index is trading at above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages of 2297 and 22854, respectively.

The MACD continues to flash a moderate buy signal. The MACD trend is negative but has reversed course. The upside break was bullish after largely trading in an intermediate term sideways channel. Now we will see if the NASDAQ can hold and edge higher towards 2366 and 2387. The index is now marginally overbought so watch for some potential selling pressure.

On the blue chip side, the near-term signs for the DOW weakened further and are now moderately bearish. The intermediate trend is bullish but yesterday’s break below its 20-day moving average of 11,156 is a warning and could signal further deterioration if it cannot hold. The Relative Strength also fell to below neutral, showing a potential lost of momentum. The MACD turned bearish yesterday and is flashing a moderate sell.
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Cameco Corp (NYSE: CCJ) is the 800-pound gorilla of the uranium sector. Cameco is to uranium what Wal-Mart is to retailing, and what Saudi Aramco is to petroleum. On a percentage basis, Cameco dominates its sector more so than either of the two. Cameco probably has more clout in turning off the electricity now powering your computer than any other company in the world.

This week, the spot price of uranium rose to $40/pound, for the first time since Ronald Reagan was president. That should help grow the uranium business in Wyoming by leaps and bounds. In Part 5, we look at the largest U.S. uranium producer, Cameco-owned Power Resources.

Understanding ‘In Situ Leach’ Uranium Extraction

“It took $284 million Canadian to build, and it operated with 546 people,” said Patrick Drummond, Plant Superintendent for Cameco subsidiary Power Resources’ Smith Ranch facility. He was pointing to Kerr McGee’s Smith Ranch underground mine on the wall across from desk, which was later converted into an ISL operation, first run by Rio Algom. “This operation cost US$44 million to build and 80 people to start.” Drummond was referring to the In Situ Leaching (ISL) uranium extraction facility, known as Smith Ranch. “That should give you the scale of the ISL versus an underground mine,” he explained.

The aging, but sprightly, Drummond knows his uranium. He’s worked in underground mines, open pit mines, and uranium mills since 1980. From 1996 to the present day, he’s worked in Wyoming for Power Resources at the company’s ISL uranium extraction facility. “I started off in the coal mines in Scotland,” boasted Drummond, who claims he can spot a coal miner in a bar, just by looking at the veins in his hands. “I worked up in Elliot Lake and the massive underground mines up there.” Clasping his hands and looking down, he seemed to apologize, “It’s also a massive environmental problem to clean up, a major undertaking. Quirk Lake was one of the bigger mines up there. It cost a lot of money to clean it up.”

The New Face of Wyoming’s Uranium Mining is the ISL uranium extraction method, also known as solution mining. The differences between mining uranium underground and an ISL operation are both minor and vast. Both methods mine uranium beneath the surface. So both methods are underground mining. However, that is where the similarities end. “With underground, you bring up the ore, grate it, crush it, and extract the uranium from the ore,” Drummond explained the basics of underground uranium mining. “That ore becomes waste, which is known as tailings. You then have to service these big tailings and then decommission.”

ISL is the new breed of mining. “With ISL, we don’t do that,” continued Drummond in his day-long lecture to our editorial team during a VIP tour of the Smith Ranch facility. “To mine underground with ISL, you drill the holes where the uranium is and extract the uranium from the underground ore,” he said. “Then, you process that into yellowcake.”

It’s not all wine and roses for Drummond, though. He pines away for his underground mines, “From a mining perspective, it’s not mining so it is not as exciting. Drummond laughs, “ISL is like a water treatment plant. We take water out and remove some ions.” He makes it sound so simple, “We remove the water from the underground and remove the ions, being the uranium ion. Then, we put the water back under the ground.” All of the water goes back into the ground? Actually no. Drummond explained, “We take our water out and we put 99 percent back in. The one percent we call ‘bleed.’ It’s a control function.”

Drummond cites more comparables, “To start an underground mine, it would take a year to do the shaft before you could start mining. Then, there’s the development cost of the mill complex. You have all that outlay of cost before you can get any benefit. It’s expensive to do underground — $200 million plus – because of the upfront development costs.” From his perspective, the miner in Drummond has come to like solution mining. “ISL is easier. It is a lot cheaper: less expensive capital costs and less operating expenditures. It is less labor intensive.” Asked about the deadly radon emissions, often cited as a danger in underground mining, Drummond shot back, “This is a zero emission facility.”

Analyzing the two methods, he said, “You can start producing faster with an ISL operation. You start your first header house, and you can start producing and make money.” He added, “So you get a return on your investment faster.” What’s the downside? “We also recover less uranium with ISL,” Drummond admitted. “Some of Cameco’s mines in Saskatchewan are running around 5, 10, 15, and 27 percent uranium. In this area, or in an ISL, it runs less than one or two percent. It’s very low.” Plus the uranium ore body must be found below the water table. He added, “You can only do ISL in rock that’s porous and has water in it in the first place.”
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I like maxims and quips. Little phrases that tell a big story. I like the parables in the Bible because a child can say “I get it,” and an aged student can say “Oh… now I get it.” The principle of keeping it simple is a good one for most of life’s situations including trading. And while trading skills are not easy to master, they involve simple principles.

Mastery in most areas of life includes learning to conserve extraneous movement and effort. When it is done right it looks simple and onlookers often say “Well, I could do that.” But the “wanna be” soon finds that it is not as easy as it seems. Trading can be frustrating and discouraging, but when the market seems to get you down and you feel like you will never get it, remember Sean Connery’s famous line, “Impossible, but doable.”

Too often, traders experience real highs and real lows. While the give and take is normal and expected, big swings are usually the result of changing stride or technique inappropriately. Finding your stride or niche can really make the trading life a lot more consistent and smooth and therefore, profitable. Getting to know a few terrific trading stocks rather than collecting all the potential candidates from recommendations and scans begins to overwhelm a trader and changes the rifle shot accuracy to a shotgun splatter.

So, a while back in a Trader Talk Live training a student wrote “- the past 7 days of trading have been absolutely fantastic. I have confirmed again the value of following just a few stocks and getting to learn (as much as possible) their behavior. PD is one of my all time favorites”. She was referring to a principle that is trained in the Trader’s Forge two day trading camp that I conduct once a month. I advise students to build a stable of good trading stocks and get to know them. Pick your favorite 6-10 and back trade them repeatedly. Learn to recognize the patterns of behavior. Does it behave in similar ways around earnings? Does it make clean or sloppy turns? Does it have a tendency to throw certain chart patterns? In doing so, you get a feel for the traders who influence the stock and improve your chances to repeatedly tap that stock for pattern trades.

The patterns we observe are the behavior of people. Key Traders are interacting with various levels of traders, brokers, fund managers and the public. This cast of players is unique in each stock or group of stocks, bonds, commodities etc. Hence, unique patterns develop and that is the key. Instead of flitting around like a butterfly from bush to bush looking for a new flower, you can find certain flowers that keep producing on a regular cycle. You develop a routine and learn the cycle so that you can just stick around and harvest over and over again.
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Investing in penny stocks provides traders with the opportunity to dramatically increase their profits, however, it also provides an equal opportunity to lose your trading capital quickly. These 5 tips will help you lower the risk of one of the riskiest investment vehicles.

1. Penny Stocks are a penny for a reason.
While we all dream about investing in the next Microsoft or the next Home Depot, the truth is, the odds of you finding that once in a decade success story are slim. These companies are either starting out and purchased a shell company because it was cheaper than an IPO, or they simply do not have a business plan compelling enough to justify investment banker’s money for an IPO. This doesn’t make them a bad investment, but it should make you be realistic about the kind of company that you are investing in.

2. Trading Volumes
Look for a consistent high volume of shares being traded. Looking at the average volume can be misleading. If ABC trades 1 million shares today, and doesn’t trade for the rest of the week, the daily average will appear to be 200 000 shares. In order to get in and out at an acceptable rate of return, you need consistent volume. Also look at the number of trades per day. Is it 1 insider selling or buying? Liquidity should be the first thing to look at. If there is no volume, you will end up holding “dead money”, where the only way of selling shares is to dump at the bid, which will put more selling pressure, resulting in an even lower sell price.
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